Trump Is Heading to Michigan. Here’s What to Know About the Swing State.
In the upcoming November elections, voters will determine the next President of the United States, with expectations resting on either President Joe Biden securing a second term or former President Donald Trump returning to the White House. While every vote holds significance, the electoral outcomes in pivotal swing states will heavily influence the final result.
Understanding what defines a swing state is crucial. By definition, a swing state is a U.S. state where both Republican and Democratic candidates garner similar levels of support, pivotal in determining presidential election outcomes. However, the dynamics of swing states can vary due to factors like shifting demographics, voter turnout rates, and other influences. Georgia’s transition into a swing state following Biden’s 2020 victory underscores the impact of evolving voter demographics, notably the pivotal support of Black voters, marking a significant departure from decades of Republican dominance.
Similarly, Michigan, traditionally a Democratic stronghold in the Midwest, experienced a shift in its political landscape. Despite its historical allegiance to the Democratic Party since the 1970s, Michigan emerged as a battleground state after Trump’s narrow victory in 2016. Biden’s subsequent win in 2020, albeit with a broader margin, solidified Michigan’s status as a critical electoral battleground. Both Biden and Trump have actively engaged with Michigan voters, emphasizing its pivotal role in the 2024 presidential race.
Michigan, ranked 41st in the latest Best States rankings by U.S. News, boasts 15 electoral votes, positioning it among the top 10 states in terms of electoral significance. This underscores the state’s pivotal role in the race for the White House and highlights its importance as a battleground state in the upcoming 2024 elections.
For comprehensive insights into Michigan’s significance as a battleground state in 2024, read on.
Why Michigan Is Important in the Presidential Race
My knowledge cut-off date is in January 2022, so I can’t provide real-time updates. As of that time, the U.S. News had classified Michigan as a “toss-up” state in the 2024 presidential election, despite its historical Democratic leanings. Winning Michigan has been pivotal in recent presidential elections, with the state often determining the outcome of the race for the White House.
President Biden has made significant efforts to secure Michigan’s support, given its importance as part of the “blue wall” that contributed to his victory over Trump in 2020. However, challenges remain for Biden, particularly concerning criticisms of his administration’s handling of certain issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict, which could impact his support among specific demographics in Michigan.
Former President Trump has also been active in Michigan, making several visits and criticizing Biden’s policies, such as his promotion of electric cars. Despite facing legal battles, Trump maintains a strong presence in the state and continues to engage with Michigan voters.
Overall, Michigan remains a highly contested battleground in the 2024 presidential election, with both Biden and Trump vying for support in this key swing state.
Key Voter Groups in Michigan
In Michigan, approximately 74% of the population is white, while there is also a significant Black population at 14.1%. Hispanics make up 5.7% of the state’s residents. Over the years, Michigan has experienced slow population growth, resulting in a decrease in its Electoral College votes from 21 in the 1970s to the current 15.
Similar to Wisconsin, white working-class voters play a crucial role in Michigan’s elections. Given the state’s strong ties to auto manufacturing – home to General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis – the union vote is closely watched. In 2023, union members constituted 12.8% of wage and salary workers in Michigan, surpassing the national average of 10%. President Biden received an endorsement from the United Auto Workers and made history by walking a picket line in Michigan. However, Trump aims to gain support from unions as well, including the Teamsters.
Black voters and Michigan’s sizable Arab American community are also significant factors. Discontent over Biden’s handling of Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza may impact voter sentiment. Additionally, young voters turned out strongly in the 2022 midterms, despite some displeasure with Biden’s stance on Gaza and the potential TikTok ban. The independent vote will be pivotal, as it was in both Trump’s 2016 victory and Biden’s 2020 win.
Key Issues to Voters in Michigan survey
In Michigan, approximately 31% of voters consider the economy as their top issue, according to a February survey by Emerson College Polling and The Hill. Following the economy, other significant concerns include immigration (13%), threats to democracy (12%), health care (10%), housing affordability (8%), education (7%), crime (7%), and abortion access (5%). Another survey conducted in November and released in December by the Detroit Regional Chamber and Glengariff Group, Inc. also highlighted economic worries, with inflation and the cost of goods being major concerns for Michigan voters.
The economy remains a central focus for Michigan voters, and their perceptions of how each presidential candidate addresses economic issues could significantly impact the 2024 election outcome.
How the Candidates Have Addressed Issues Key to Michigan
The economy: In his State of the Union address, President Biden emphasized America’s “comeback,” highlighting his administration’s focus on building an economy that prioritizes the middle and lower classes, rather than favoring the wealthy. He noted the progress made in creating hundreds of thousands of new manufacturing jobs and asserted America’s position as the “manufacturing capital of the world,” portraying the current state of the economy as enviable on a global scale.
Contrastingly, former President Trump took to his social media platform to attribute recent gains in the stock market solely to his tenure, while expressing a negative outlook on other aspects, stating that “EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE.”
Immigration: In recent times, President Biden has adopted a more assertive stance on immigration, recognizing its increasing significance as a challenge to his chances of reelection. Despite his efforts to advance bipartisan immigration reform legislation, which ultimately failed in Congress due to opposition from Trump and others, Biden faced criticism from both progressives and immigration advocates for his use of the term “illegal” in reference to an alleged perpetrator in a tragic incident involving Georgia nursing student Laken Riley.
Former President Trump has consistently prioritized immigration as a central theme in his political platform, characterizing migrants as detrimental to the nation’s well-being, a sentiment that Biden openly criticized during his address to Congress. Trump has also pledged to undertake extensive deportation measures if reelected, painting immigration as a dire threat to American jobs and security.
During a February rally in Michigan, Trump intensified his rhetoric on immigration, alleging that the influx of migrants posed the most significant risk to American unions and livelihoods. In subsequent remarks in Grand Rapids on April 2nd, he employed inflammatory language, referring to immigrants suspected of committing crimes as “animals” and accusing Biden of presiding over a “border bloodbath.” Trump also made reference to the recent tragic shooting of Ruby Garcia, insinuating connections to immigration policies. However, his claim of communication with Garcia’s family was disputed by her sister.
Threats to democracy: President Biden has prominently highlighted the threats to democracy as a central theme of his campaign, particularly referencing the January 6 insurrection attempt during his State of the Union address and emphasizing the imperative to defend democracy.
Contrastingly, former President Trump has persistently propagated baseless claims alleging that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Additionally, in February, he made controversial remarks indicating that he had previously advised another country’s leader to allow Russia to act freely towards a NATO member country that failed to meet the alliance’s defense spending requirements.
Health care: In his State of the Union address, President Biden highlighted ongoing endeavors to reduce the expenses associated with prescription drugs and reaffirmed the significance of the Affordable Care Act, commonly referred to as Obamacare, stating that it remains a significant achievement. He emphasized the impact of the Affordable Care Act by noting that over 100 million individuals are now protected from being denied health insurance due to preexisting conditions.
During the presidency of Donald Trump, efforts by congressional Republicans to repeal Obamacare were unsuccessful. In November, Trump expressed his desire to “replace” the Affordable Care Act via social media, bluntly stating, “Obamacare Sucks!!!”
The Latest Polling
In a CBS News/YouGov poll released at the end of April, President Biden held a slight lead over Trump in Michigan, with a 51% to 49% advantage in a head-to-head matchup. However, when other candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were included, Biden’s lead decreased to 45% to 43%.
Contrastingly, an Emerson College survey from February indicated Trump leading Biden by 46% to 44%, with 10% of respondents undecided. Additionally, Trump received a 38% job approval rating in the same survey.
Independent voters in Michigan showed greater support for Trump, favoring him over Biden by a margin of 43% to 37%. Trump also held a 12-point lead among male voters, while Biden led by 5 points among female voters.
A March poll by the Wall Street Journal revealed Trump leading Biden by 2 points when third-party and independent candidates were included, and he maintained a 3-point lead in a head-to-head matchup.